Sunday, January 23, 2011

Chicago Bears NFC Title Game Prediction

So I've just covered the strengths and weaknesses of the Green Bay Packers before their appearance in today's NFC Title Game.  Now I will touch on the strengths and weaknesses of their bitter rivals, the Chicago Bears.

Strengths:

Quarterback:  Jay Cutler has a cannon.  Period.  He can throw long bombs on a low trajectory in a manner that few NFL quarterbacks can match.  He threw for 23 touchdowns this past season.  Cutler's incredible arm strength fits in perfect tandem with the Bears vertical passing game consisting of Cutler hooking up with Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, and Greg Olson on deep passes.  Cutler also has surprising athleticism for an NFL quarterback with 232 rushing yards and 1 touchdown on the ground.


Running Backs:  The Bears have a consistent ground game revolving around the do-it-all back, Matt Forte.  He accounted for 1,069 yards on the ground with 6 scores on the ground.  Forte is tough between the tackles  but has the moves to break a game open as evidenced by a 68 yard touchdown run earlier this season.  Forte is also a threat in the passing game with 51 receptions for 547 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Watch for the Bears to control the clock with an effective ground game.


Run Defense:  The Bears were second this season in total rush defense only allowing 90.1 yards per game.  The front seven led by linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs stuff anything that comes between the tackles.  Urlacher is a monster at 6'4" and 258 lbs and easily handles anything that happens to moving in his direction.  Defensive end Julius Peppers collapses the edge forcing outside runs inside toward the fortified Bears interior.  Also the Bears have forced a league high 15 fumbles which has only added to the common belief of the opportunistic nature of this defense.  The Bears will work to shut down the run game to put more pressure on Aaron Rodgers's arm to deliver to critical situations.


Special Teams:  Devin Hester is lightning on returns.  He led in the league in punt returns with 33 returns for 564 yards at 17.1 yards per return and on top of that, Hester returned 3 punts for touchdowns.  Though Hester does not usually handle kick return duties, he still managed a 427 yards on 12 returns for a 35.6 yards per return average.  It should be interesting to see if Hester is able to break free on any returns today or whether the Packers avoid his direction altogether.


Weaknesses:

Quarterback:  Funny that Jay Cutler would be both a strength and a weakness.  But it is well known throughout the league that Cutler throws interceptions in bushels.  He has thrown for 16 interceptions this year often and inopportune moments in the game.  Cutler can be wildly inaccurate especially when he tries to do too much and force throws in coverage.  A stingy Packers pass defense should provide Cutler quite a challenge.



Offensive Line:  The Bears have atrocious pass protection.  Cutler has been sacked a league high 52 times this season.  The inadequate protection has often forced Cutler to release the ball too early or not properly read the defensive coverage.  If the Bears hope to win this game, Cutler will need to feel less pressure in the pocket to help set his receivers' routes downfield.


Gameplan:

Offense:  Run, run, run.  The Bears do not have the firepower to stay with the Packers in a shootout and need to control the game clock to keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers's hands.  If the Packers have one glaring weakness on defense, it's been injuries suffered on the defensive line.  The Bears need to control the line of scrimmage to run between the tackles.  If an effective run is established, then the Bears can set play action with Jay Cutler which will give him more time in the pocket and allow his receivers to get down field.

Defense:  The Bears front seven must neutralize the Packers run game.  Even though Aaron Rodgers has carried the team on his arm throughout the season, eliminating the rushing attack will force the Packers into passing situations in the red zone making it more difficult to score touchdowns.  Keeping pressure on Rodgers will also be vital as the quarterback has proven time and time again that he performs to his fullest on the biggest stage.  In summary, the Bears must dominate the line of scrimmage if they hope to disrupt the prolific Packers offensive machine.

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