Saturday, January 22, 2011

Green Bay Packers NFC Title Game Prediction

So tomorrow on Soldier Field at 3:00PM the Chicago Bears will host the Green Bay Packers for the NFC Title Game.  The winner gets a ticket punched for Super Bowl XLV.  Both these teams are very evenly matched and it should be a very exciting game.  My first post will deal with the NFC 6th seed, the Green Bay Packers.

Strengths:

Quarterback:  First and foremost, the Green Bay Packers have a real stud at quarterback in Aaron Rodgers.  He has thrown for 3922 yards with 28 touchdowns to 11 interceptions over the course of this season.  In the NFC Division Round on the road against number 1 seed, the Atlanta Falcons, Rodgers was 31-36 for 366 yards and 3 touchdowns en route to 48-21 shellacking of the original NFC favorites.  He is also quite mobile for an NFL quarterback accounting for 4 touchdowns on the ground this season.  Rodgers's greatest strength is his accuracy.    He easily hits his favorite targets in stride and places the ball in spots impossible for defenders to break up.  If the Packers hope to beat the Bears at home, Rodgers will have to be on top of his game.



Receivers:  With such a prolific quarterback under center, the Packers receivers have flourished with fantastic receiving totals and touchdowns.  Greg Jennings alone has accounted for 12 touchdowns second only to Dwayne Bowe of the Kansas City Chiefs.  These ridiculous numbers have partially resulted from the necessity to move to the ball through the air because of the lack of a dominant, every-down ever since the injury of Ryan Grant at the beginning of the season.  However, it cannot be denied that the Packers have arguably the greatest receiving corps in NFC with Jennings, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, and Donald Driver picking up great yardage threw the air.



Pass Defense:  The Green Bay Packers are a headache to deal with in 2nd and long or 3rd and long situations.  Between the constant pressure provided by the front seven and ball hawking secondary, passing against the Green Bay Packers is ill-advised.  During the regular season the Packers finished 5th in pass defense by only allowing 194.2 passing yards per game.  On top of that the Packers tied for second in the NFL in both sacks and interceptions with 47 of the former and 24 of the latter.  Clay Matthews who accounted for 13.5 sacks this season, is incredibly disruptive in the trenches and creates pressure on opposing quarterbacks all game long.  Tramon Williams, viewed by many as one of great Pro Bowl snubs, recorded 6 interceptions while teammates Charles Woodson and Nick Collins work to confuse offenses with various defensive packages.



Weaknesses:

Running Backs:  The loss of Ryan Grant this preseason has hit the Packers hard in terms of running the football.  An every-down option has not emerged from in the Packers backfield resulting in more pressure being put on Rodgers in passing situations.  Though Brandon Jackson currently leads the team with 703 yards this season, rookir James Starks is starting to become a very exciting player to watch.  At 6'-2" and 218 lbs, Starks is an incredibly physical runner between the tackles and has surprising speed.  It should be interesting to see how the Packers offense implements his running style into the game.

Offensive Line:  The Packers has a surprisingly average offensive line for such a prolific passing offense.  Though the offensive line as a whole has been much more consistent in pass protection, they have allowed a total of 38 sacks.  In the rushing game, the Packers offensive line has definitely underachieved.  After Ryan Grant's injury, everyone expected the offensive line to step up to take pressure off of the green stable of running backs.  As evidenced by a measly 3.8 yards per carry average, the Packers offensive line has clearly not held up their end of the bargain.  If the Packers hope to keep long drives going down the field, the offensive line will have to pave the way for the running backs to take pressure off of Rodgers arm.


Gameplan:

Offense:  The Packers need to score early and often.  Because the Packers defense is not as strong in rush defense as they are in pass defense, it is in the Packers best interest to play from ahead and force Jay Cutler to even the score with his arm.  The Packers also want to lean to their passing game when sustaining drives as the Bears are not as skilled at defending the pass as there are at defending the run.  Aside from cornerback, Charles Tillman, the Bears secondary is rather unspectacular and should fall victim to the precision of Rodgers arm with good gameplanning.

Defense:  The Packers need to force Jay Cutler to try and win the game with his arm.  Though Jay Culter is physically gifted, he tends to force throws and is well-known for his tendency to throw interceptions.  Getting pressure on a Bears offensive line whose Achilles heel is pass protection should be priority number one as the Packers defense works to disrupt the Bears offensive rhythm.  Putting the Bears in 2nd and long or 3rd and long situations throughout the game should give the Packers defense the edge to come out with a win.


No comments:

Post a Comment